The New York Stock Exchange was quite a mover this morning. After a rash of buying on the September futures on all indices, I noticed that the sellers were starting to come out en mass. Didn’t matter anyway, I had already did what I wanted to do and was ready to call it a day. I know that I’ve previously made it a point that this blog isn’t going to participate in any capital markets punditry but I’ll make an exception here and there, as you may have already noticed. With the record highs we’ve been making, it’s easy to say that the market is climbing a wall of worry. After all, the VIX is down to historic levels and the idea of a quasi-stagnant upward trajectory triggers images of a helium balloon rising inside a tower whose walls are lined with needles. However, I’ve seen enough of these types of markets to wonder if this worry is unnecessary, at least for now. If I had the kind of war chest built for a protracted position, I’d probably see what shorting the market could get me. Instead, I believe – and I’ve seen evidence of this in both equity and futures TOS rolls – that there are some pretty big buyers out there and they are scooping up cars on a daily basis. The bottom line here is that I think this market isn’t in the last legs of a “bull run”, I think this is just the very beginning. Strange, right? Well, I personally don’t give a shit because I don’t play the very long game. I play the game that’s in front of my face every day. So let’s get on with it.
(disclaimer: this blog post and any blog post before and after this one, is not meant to be taken as a direct or indirect investment recommendation. do your homework and be responsible with your money before you plunk it down on any investment whether it’s stocks, futures, real-estate or tulips.)
Like I said, the indices opened up strongly and I was able to bag 2 scalps that pretty much went my way with size so that was that. It would have been nice to catch the move down but at the point where I wanted to commit more capital, I just felt like the market was moving too slow for comfort and being that this was a Friday, I just didn’t want to go in for shits & laughs. I took whatever I had in the PnL and left it at that. Additionally, I tried to trade a little Cocoa open and didn’t manage much out of that either. I’m just the type of person that is very sensitive to anything that might convey the message of a market going against me because I need to really protect my capital and I’m a fierce proponent of getting out quickly and less about the business of stop-losses. All I know is if the market ain’t moving, then it’s not a market worth trading. I’ve got better things to do. All in all, I came out with a few dollars after giving a plate of green PnL numbers to my broker.
Is it cool that I broke even? Yes and No. Is it cool that I didn’t lose money on a Friday? Definitely Yes. I don’t like to lose money at all and I’ve spoken about this ad nauseum but I REALLY don’t like losing money on a Friday. It has been a decent week for me as I have taken care of business both in my life outside of trading and for the business. I wouldn’t want that to be tainted by a bad Friday performance. We are in the midst of a heat wave right now in the East Coast and I suppose there isn’t a better way of celebrating a week where I survived than going out to the backyard, grilling up some fish and crackin’ open a cold one with the fellas – and when I mean fellas I’m talking about the two groundhogs that are digging the shit out of my backyard because apparently they want to create a tunnel wonderland bonanza.
As always, I am extremely grateful that I am alive for yet another day in this business.